Thursday, February 12, 2015

Did BJP hold on to its vote share in Delhi 2015?

While discussing the shocking Delhi 2015 election results with anyone, a reference to the BJP vote share staying constant is almost certain. This myth is also being widely propagated on the social and conventional media. The vote shares for major parties in the past 3 Delhi elections are tabulated below –

2015 Vidhan Sabha
2014 Lok Sabha
2013 Vidhan Sabha

If you compare between the last 2 Vidhan Sabha elections, then BJP has somewhat held on to its vote share. But one cannot ignore the Modi factor in this election, as he and his style of governance was BJP’s campaign plank, almost till the end. Even the polling day, Modi’s face was splashed across all major newspapers in an attempt to urge voters to vote for BJP.
When you compare the vote share changes with respect to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it is evident, that AAP could have got only about 6.5% of the vote shift from the Congress. A majority of the APP incremental vote (around 15%) came from the BJP’s kitty.
Official BJP spokesperson’s are ignoring this drop and claiming that you can only compare a Vidhan Sabha election to another Vidhan Sabha election. In any other election season, I would have agreed but not now. If you attribute BJP’s increase in vote share in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and J & K to the charisma of Narendra Modi and organizational skills of Amit Shah, then you cannot insulate them when they have so spectacularly failed.

Another way to look at this “Constant Vote Share” argument is to acknowledge that all the effort that the Modi-Shah duo has put in the last 14 months, campaigning, building the organization strength, strategizing and governing the country has come to a naught J

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