2015 Vidhan sabha elections in
Bihar are a big test for all political parties. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is looking
to stay relevant after a complete rout in the last Lok Sabha. Laloo's RJD is
also facing a credibility crisis, with him unable to contest elections. BJP has
to build on the gains made in the Lok Sabha and figure out its strategy to
counter the possible coalitions or mergers aimed solely at stopping them from
gaining power. Congress which is already reduced to only 4 seats in the Bihar
assembly will want to showcase some improvements to give hope to its nationwide
supporters.
In this keenly contested
political battle caste considerations reign supreme in strategies of all
parties, with a smoke screen of development thrown in by the BJP and JD(U), led
by Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar. RJD
is still trying to hold on to their traditional combination of Muslims and
Yadavs. The JD(U) had in the past cobbled together a coalition of the backward
castes, and maha dalits, with a strong support of Kurmis and Koeris. BJP has a
strong support base in the upper caste Bhumihars, Brahmins, Rajputs, Kayasths
and also some sections of the OBC. Congress has been marginalised and can only
count on the support of Muslims and Brahmins, in certain pockets.
The Battle for Bihar 2015 will
see strategies and counter strategies to out manoeuvre the opposition social
combination. The proposed merger of the Janta Parivar is one such attempt to
add Maha Dalits, Kurmi-Koeri, and some OBC votes to the Muslim-Yadav
combination of RJD. This merger or coalition will also provide a strong
anti-BJP pole which will help consolidate the minority vote. Problems in the
proposed merger are already cropping up, with Nitish in a hurry but Laloo being
cautious. This change is based mainly on the problems being faced by Nitish
Kumar in controlling CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. In case of a change of CM, the maha
dalits might feel cheated and move away from JD(U). This would leave Nitish Kumar with only the
Kurmis as his committed supporters and Laloo might not see great value in the
merger. Laloo would then want to reach out to the Maha dalits himself and this
was evident in his careful approach towards Manjhi in recent statements. A
coalition with Congress would make more sense for Laloo in such a scenario.
The BJP, which received votes
from across the social spectrum in the Lok Sabha, is aware that it will be
difficult to repeat the same in the absence of a Modi centric campaign. BJP is
therefore trying to break opposition votes by focussing on the Maha Dalits and
the Yadavs. Current CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s actions and words are helping the
BJP, and there are even hints that he might join the BJP and be their face to
attract the Maha Dalits. In case Manjhi does not switch sides, then BJP will
rely on Ram Vilas Paswan to be their Maha Dalit face. On the Yadav front, BJP
has fielded Nand Kishore Yadav prominently, in addition to appointing Bhupendra
Yadav as in-charge for the state and giving priority to Ram Kripal Yadav.
The rapidly changing political
landscape of Bihar will see many more twists and turns and the final outcome
will only be clear when the votes are counted. However, for any keen political
observer or analyst, Bihar will provide key insights into the future direction
of India’s politics, both in terms of social & political coalitions.