While
discussing the shocking Delhi 2015 election results with anyone, a reference to
the BJP vote share staying constant is almost certain. This myth is also being
widely propagated on the social and conventional media. The vote shares for
major parties in the past 3 Delhi elections are tabulated below –
|
|
BJP
|
AAP
|
Congress
|
BSP
|
|
2015 Vidhan Sabha
|
32.2%
|
54.3%
|
9.7%
|
1.3%
|
|
2014 Lok Sabha
|
46.63%
|
33.08%
|
15.22%
|
1.23%
|
|
2013 Vidhan Sabha
|
33.07%
|
29.49%
|
24.55%
|
5.35%
|
If you
compare between the last 2 Vidhan Sabha elections, then BJP has somewhat held
on to its vote share. But one cannot ignore the Modi factor in this election,
as he and his style of governance was BJP’s campaign plank, almost till the
end. Even the polling day, Modi’s face was splashed across all major newspapers
in an attempt to urge voters to vote for BJP.
When you
compare the vote share changes with respect to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it
is evident, that AAP could have got only about 6.5% of the vote shift from the
Congress. A majority of the APP incremental vote (around 15%) came from the BJP’s
kitty.
Official
BJP spokesperson’s are ignoring this drop and claiming that you can only
compare a Vidhan Sabha election to another Vidhan Sabha election. In any other
election season, I would have agreed but not now. If you attribute BJP’s
increase in vote share in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and J & K to the
charisma of Narendra Modi and organizational skills of Amit Shah, then you
cannot insulate them when they have so spectacularly failed.
Another way
to look at this “Constant Vote Share” argument is to acknowledge that all the
effort that the Modi-Shah duo has put in the last 14 months, campaigning,
building the organization strength, strategizing and governing the country has
come to a naught J
