Did BJP hold on to its vote share in Delhi 2015?

While discussing the shocking Delhi 2015 election results with anyone, a reference to the BJP vote share staying constant is almost certain. This myth is also being widely propagated on the social and conventional media. The vote shares for major parties in the past 3 Delhi elections are tabulated below –

	BJP	AAP	Congress	BSP
2015 Vidhan Sabha	32.2%	54.3%	9.7%	1.3%
2014 Lok Sabha	46.63%	33.08%	15.22%	1.23%
2013 Vidhan Sabha	33.07%	29.49%	24.55%	5.35%

If you compare between the last 2 Vidhan Sabha elections, then BJP has somewhat held on to its vote share. But one cannot ignore the Modi factor in this election, as he and his style of governance was BJP’s campaign plank, almost till the end. Even the polling day, Modi’s face was splashed across all major newspapers in an attempt to urge voters to vote for BJP.

When you compare the vote share changes with respect to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it is evident, that AAP could have got only about 6.5% of the vote shift from the Congress. A majority of the APP incremental vote (around 15%) came from the BJP’s kitty.

Official BJP spokesperson’s are ignoring this drop and claiming that you can only compare a Vidhan Sabha election to another Vidhan Sabha election. In any other election season, I would have agreed but not now. If you attribute BJP’s increase in vote share in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, and J & K to the charisma of Narendra Modi and organizational skills of Amit Shah, then you cannot insulate them when they have so spectacularly failed.

Another way to look at this “Constant Vote Share” argument is to acknowledge that all the effort that the Modi-Shah duo has put in the last 14 months, campaigning, building the organization strength, strategizing and governing the country has come to a naught J

Battle lines – Bihar 2015

2015 Vidhan sabha elections in Bihar are a big test for all political parties. Nitish Kumar's JD(U) is looking to stay relevant after a complete rout in the last Lok Sabha. Laloo's RJD is also facing a credibility crisis, with him unable to contest elections. BJP has to build on the gains made in the Lok Sabha and figure out its strategy to counter the possible coalitions or mergers aimed solely at stopping them from gaining power. Congress which is already reduced to only 4 seats in the Bihar assembly will want to showcase some improvements to give hope to its nationwide supporters.

In this keenly contested political battle caste considerations reign supreme in strategies of all parties, with a smoke screen of development thrown in by the BJP and JD(U), led by Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar.  RJD is still trying to hold on to their traditional combination of Muslims and Yadavs. The JD(U) had in the past cobbled together a coalition of the backward castes, and maha dalits, with a strong support of Kurmis and Koeris. BJP has a strong support base in the upper caste Bhumihars, Brahmins, Rajputs, Kayasths and also some sections of the OBC. Congress has been marginalised and can only count on the support of Muslims and Brahmins, in certain pockets.

The Battle for Bihar 2015 will see strategies and counter strategies to out manoeuvre the opposition social combination. The proposed merger of the Janta Parivar is one such attempt to add Maha Dalits, Kurmi-Koeri, and some OBC votes to the Muslim-Yadav combination of RJD. This merger or coalition will also provide a strong anti-BJP pole which will help consolidate the minority vote. Problems in the proposed merger are already cropping up, with Nitish in a hurry but Laloo being cautious. This change is based mainly on the problems being faced by Nitish Kumar in controlling CM Jitan Ram Manjhi. In case of a change of CM, the maha dalits might feel cheated and move away from JD(U).  This would leave Nitish Kumar with only the Kurmis as his committed supporters and Laloo might not see great value in the merger. Laloo would then want to reach out to the Maha dalits himself and this was evident in his careful approach towards Manjhi in recent statements. A coalition with Congress would make more sense for Laloo in such a scenario.

The BJP, which received votes from across the social spectrum in the Lok Sabha, is aware that it will be difficult to repeat the same in the absence of a Modi centric campaign. BJP is therefore trying to break opposition votes by focussing on the Maha Dalits and the Yadavs. Current CM Jitan Ram Manjhi’s actions and words are helping the BJP, and there are even hints that he might join the BJP and be their face to attract the Maha Dalits. In case Manjhi does not switch sides, then BJP will rely on Ram Vilas Paswan to be their Maha Dalit face. On the Yadav front, BJP has fielded Nand Kishore Yadav prominently, in addition to appointing Bhupendra Yadav as in-charge for the state and giving priority to Ram Kripal Yadav.

The rapidly changing political landscape of Bihar will see many more twists and turns and the final outcome will only be clear when the votes are counted. However, for any keen political observer or analyst, Bihar will provide key insights into the future direction of India’s politics, both in terms of social & political coalitions.

Electoral Battleground - Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2012

Political drama is at its peak in Uttar Pradesh, with instances of police atrocities, murders and rape continuing to hog the headlines in national media. This has pushed Mayavati on the the backfoot, who till a few months back was enjoying tremendous power without any problems. She was sweeping bye-elections, MLC elections and panchayat elections with ease. But now BSP cadres are jittery. They are not so sure now about the Sarvajan ideology helping them, this time around. The traditional vote bank of the BSP may still remain intact but the success mantra for the clear majority in the last assembly election was the support of upper castes (primarily Brahmins) and certain sections of Muslim community.

Today, the upper caste voters in Uttar Pradesh are having doubts about the capability of Mayawati in tackling the deteriorating Law & Order situation in the state. This was the very plank that catapulted Mayawati into power throwing out the Mulayam Singh government. Voters in UP always knew that they have no choice with regards to corruption but the least they wanted was an end to the goonda raj rampant in SP rule. Congress and BJP are trying hard to woo this segment as they have been their voters in the earlier days. How successful will these attempts be, will only be known at the hustings in about 10 months time. But they will surely regain some part of their lost support base.

Another important factor in these elections will be the impact of the new delimitation. By the very nature of the excercise, the number of urban seats have grown in sync with increasing migration to cities. This works to the advantage of Congress and the BJP as they are the major parties in the cities. The SP and the BSP at best play a fringe role in most big cities, coming 3rd or 4th. Many speculate that the rise in fortunes for the Congress in LokSabha 2009 in UP was in part due to the delimitation of seats.

This brings us to the all important Muslim vote bank in a state where they matter more than anywhere else in India. Mulayam had a setback in the LokSabha elections when he joined hands with Kalyan Singh, who is seen as a major architect of the Babri Masjid demolition. He then went on to antagonize Azam Khan, another popular muslim leader from SP, because of Amar Singh. Situations have now changed, Mulayam has kept Kalyan SIngh at a fair distance and would not dare repeat the same mistake again. Amar Singh is on his own and with that Mulayam has welcomed Azam Khan once again in the party. All is still not well and Azam Khan will definitely have his pound of flesh as he realisies that he is critical to Mulayam in his strategy to woo back the muslim community to SP fold.

Congress's efforts to woo the Muslims are being led by none other than Digvijay Singh, who one can argue sometimes goes overboard with his muslim appeasement agenda. Still Congress has no big names in UP to draw the Muslims to its side, the 3 Muslim MP's from the state are Cabinet Minister, Salman Khursheed, Mohammed Azharuddin, and Zafar Ali Naqvi. Salman Khursheed is not a popular face amongst the Muslim community and is not a mass leader. Azhar had jumped into politics and won form Moradabad, but has not been active ever since. Zafar Ali Naqvi is not a well known face amongst muslims and he was not able to get his son elected in one of the recently held bye-elections in Lakhimpur district.

One key entrant to the political landscape in UP has been the Peace Party. Led by Dr. Ayub, this party had started out from  Purvanchal and has now spread considerably. This is widely percieved to be led by well educated and professional muslims and are not seen as extremists. They have done well in a few bye-elections, where their candidates have come ahead of the Congress and BJP candidates. They also claim to be able to transfer their core votes to the parties in alliance, claiming to be similar to BSP in this aspect. They have formed a coalition with Ajit Singh's RLD, Indian Justice Party, Bhartiya Samaj Party and others and are planning to contest on all 403 seats. People across party lines are waking up to their potential of spoilers, if not winners. It is still early days but they might hurt the likes of SP and Congress and hence there are speculations about the financial backing of the party. Some sections of the political class claim  Peace Party to be a front set up to divide the muslim votes intended to help BJP. A name of a certain Hindu hardline MP from eastern UP surfaces in many such conversations.

With so much drama unfolding day by day, it is difficult to ascertain the facts from rumours, but one thing assured is a keenly contested election and lots of interesting plots and sub-plots. Keep your eyes and ears open till May 2012.